The United States’ and China’s relations will cast a pall over relations and the global economy. From climate change to economic growth and regional security, the degree to which the two nations can coexist, and occasionally collaborate, will set the tone around the world.

East Asia (including North Korea and Taiwan) will be unaffected by US-China ties because the two countries’ entrenched interests are not aligned. With a divided Korea, the US-backed South Korea and China-backed North Korea will have to share the peninsula. A united Korea would inevitably be pushed into the orbit of one of the superpowers, forcing the other to respond.